[Inquiry] Re: Examples Of Inquiry

[Jon Awbrey]

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EOI.  Note 13

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Cathy Legg's "Missing The Bus" Example (concl.)

I left off last time at the point where you were just beginning to
contemplate the possibility that your current situation might fall
under the case description of a public holiday, thereby explaining
the absence of the expected bus, and a hypothesis which, if true,
would reduce your affective sense of surprise at the accustomed
bus not being there at the place-time that you were accustomed
to observe it.

Now, if you're like me, you might eventually think to look up,
and then to look around your surrounding neighborhood, to see
if you can observe any further evidence or any other naturally
occurring signs that might bear on your new hypothesis one way
or another.

This, of course, brings us to the deductive phase of our present inquiry.
And, equally of course, our immedately present phase of deduction must
be distinguished from all of those previous deductions, not to mention
their Promethean and Epimethean (fore and aft) bracketings by all of
those previous bits of abductive and inductive reasoning that went
into making up what were no doubt many previous cycles, and a vast
host of parallel cycles, and a countless array of epicycles on
our deference to an inquiry that may be indefinitely deferred.

Well, after that importunate word from our spontaneity,
I think that it is due time to get back to our story.
We have all been waiting for this bus long enough!

[This essay was written just after Easter 2000.]

If I had been walking on a residential street hereabouts,
through most of last week, when this "missing of the bus"
caper was alleged to have happened, I could have looked up
and looked around and seen all the gaily colored balloons,
the flapping ribbons, and the many other festive decorations
that were decked out on many of the houses and the trees by
all of the neighborhood parents who were throwing together
to treat their collective broods to an Easter Egg Hunt.
So that would have served to confirm the hypothesis of
a holiday, and perhaps it may have even altered my sense
of what was "best", "benign", "beneficial" -- trudging off
on my accustomed way, in pursuit of my habitual goals, or
stopping to enjoy the signs of another custom, and even
to follow them -- but that's another story altogether!

Anyway, it behooves me to try and size up the present moment of inquiry.
Let me unfold the map again and make a few additional notations upon it.

o---------------------------------------------------------------------o
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` `A` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `D` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` (A) ` |
| ` ` o ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `o` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` o ` ` |
| ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` |
| ` ` ` \ * ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` * ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` * / ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` \ ` * ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `*` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` * ` / ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` * ` ` ` ` ` ` ` * ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` * ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` ` * ` ` ` ` ` `*` ` ` ` ` ` * ` ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` ` B o ` ` ` ` * ` ` ` o (B) ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` ` `*` ` ` ` `*` ` `*` ` ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` ` * ` ` ` ` * ` * ` ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` `*` ` ` ` `*`*` ` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` ` * ` ` ` ` o H ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` `*` ` ` `*` ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ ` * ` ` * ` / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ `*` `* `/ ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` ` ` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` \ * * / ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `\` `/` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| A `=` Arriving bus situations ` \*/ ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
| B `=` Best case situations` ` ` `o` ` ` D `=` Decorative situations |
| C `=` Current situation ` ` ` ` `C` ` ` H `=` Holiday situations` ` |
| ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` |
o---------------------------------------------------------------------o
Figure 9.  Cathy Legg's "Busman's Holiday" Example

I think that this pretty graphically says what I've been striving to say
in the last thousand words or so, and I am tempted to leave it at that,
but temptations to desist, you will have observed, are the sorts of
temptations I can easily resist!  So let me attempt to sum it up
all over again, this time once again in schematic symbols and
in rather more verbose but slightly more descriptive phrases.

Abduction of a Case:

 Fact:     C => (A),     In the current situation, the bus is not arriving.
 Rule:     H => (A),     If it is a holiday, the bus would not be arriving.
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 Case:     C =>  H ,     Perhaps the current situation is a holiday.

The validity of this abduction as a form of reasoning, in the only way
that its particular form of non-demonstrative inference can be said to
be valid, depends on the validity of the corresponding deduction, from
the Case : C => H and the Rule : H => ~A to the Fact : C => ~A.  So it
needs to be remembered that the utility of this deduction, which only
concludes what has already been observed, is that it succeeds in its
aim to reduce the surprise of that observation.

Deduction of a Fact:

 Case:     C => H ,     In the current situation, it is a holiday.
 Rule:     H => D ,     If it is a holiday, there will be decorations.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Fact:     C => D ,     In the current situation, there will be decorations.

The inductive phase, in this situation, consists of looking up and testing
whether the prediction comes true.  I have been studying for few years now,
and still remain a bit puzzled, as to how exactly this sense of induction
fits in logically, if it does at all, with the other meaning of induction,
namely, of a non-demonstrative inference from a Case and a Fact to a Rule.

Jon Awbrey

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